Not Impressed by NABE Forecasts

Apr 20, 2009
Author: SCP Editor

April 20, 2009 – We have not been impressed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) forecasts on the economy for years, if ever – but it nonetheless continues to provide us with its insights. This morning NABE released its Industry Survey which presents the responses of 109 NABE members for the period of March 23, 2009 to April 1, 2009:

The primary takeaway from NABE is that there is “Fresh evidence that the US economy’s recession is abating”, in as much as key indicators are still declining but the breadth of the decline is narrowing. The April survey showed better (less negative) results for industry demand, profit margins, employment, capital spending and credit conditions.

We hope NABE is right, but then it was so slow to acknowledge the extent of the recession (see “NABE Finally Gets to the Party”) that we wouldn’t be surprised to see it prematurely advocating that the economy is getting back on track.