Cowen’s Stone Forecasts Return to Growth for Global PV Market in 2010
Oct 08, 2009
Author: SCP Editor
October 8, 2009 – Cowen’s Rob Stone weighed in this morning on the global PV market, forecasting a return to growth in 2010. He thinks global PV installations should reach 6GW in 2009 and 9GW+ in 2010. He acknowledges that ASPs could remain tenuous but lower costs should offset.
Key Takeaways
· The 6GW for 2009 may appear unimpressive, “it masks the 60%+ growth overall in markets excluding a collapsing Spain and flattish U.S.”
· Germany could install 2.2GW in H209 (vs. 500MW in H109)
· In 2010, expects U.S. to more than double, Japan to surge, Spain to rebound and China to become material
· For 2009, projecting a 49% CAGR to 29.5GW in 2013
· German and Italian policy changes will likely drive demand in 2010
· Best names in coverage universe are First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), SunPower (Nasdaq:SPRWA) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL)