Cowen’s Stone Forecasts Return to Growth for Global PV Market in 2010

Oct 08, 2009
Author: SCP Editor

October 8, 2009 – Cowen’s Rob Stone weighed in this morning on the global PV market, forecasting a return to growth in 2010. He thinks global PV installations should reach 6GW in 2009 and 9GW+ in 2010. He acknowledges that ASPs could remain tenuous but lower costs should offset.

Key Takeaways

·         The 6GW for 2009 may appear unimpressive, “it masks the 60%+ growth overall in markets excluding a collapsing Spain and flattish U.S.”

·         Germany could install 2.2GW in H209 (vs. 500MW in H109)

·         In 2010, expects U.S. to more than double, Japan to surge, Spain to rebound and China to become material

·         For 2009, projecting a 49% CAGR to 29.5GW in 2013

·         German and Italian policy changes will likely drive demand in 2010

·         Best names in coverage universe are First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), SunPower (Nasdaq:SPRWA) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL)


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