This Morning’s Key Economic Data - Weekly Jobless Claims (week ended January 30, 2010)
February 11, 2010 – This Morning’s Key Economic Data – Weekly Jobless Claims – The number came in much better than expected this morning at 440,000 (expectations were for about 465,000). It is tough to get a real track on the direction of the job markets these days as the numbers continue to fluctuate heavily in the 400,000 range. To be sure, in an election year, jobs are center stage so policies to stimulate job growth will be top priority.
The problem is that both sides of the aisle have their own and often incompatible plans to get there. In our commentary this morning, we noted that even if the Obama administration is successful in its plans to add back 95,000 jobs per month to the economy, it will be seven years until we get back the jobs lost since the beginning of the recession. In addition, look for the unemployment rate to continue to be buoyed by rising population numbers. So this morning’s ‘beat’ is definitely good news, but we are yet to establish a clear trend of improvements in the labr market, and even when we do, it will be a long road.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending Feb. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 440,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 483,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 469,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 30, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 30 was 4,538,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,617,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,603,500, a decrease of 17,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,621,250.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.322 million.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 504,661 in the week ending Feb. 6, a decrease of 28,640 from the previous week. There were 710,152 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent during the week ending Jan. 30, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,659,505, a decrease of 24,352 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.4 percent and the volume was 5,953,114.
Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending Jan. 23.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,569 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 89 from the prior week. There were 2,242 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 375 from the preceding week.
There were 25,878 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Jan. 23, a decrease of 289 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 37,423, an increase of 1,646 from the prior week.
States reported 5,447,592 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Jan. 23, a decrease of 184,627 from the prior week. There were 1,805,007 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Jan. 23 were in Alaska (7.5 percent), Oregon (6.7), Idaho (6.5), Wisconsin (6.4), Puerto Rico (6.3), Montana (6.2), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (5.9), Michigan (5.8), and Rhode Island (5.5).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 30 were in Pennsylvania (+10,495), Illinois (+3,062), North Carolina (+2,868), Georgia (+2,803), and Missouri (+2,677), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-1,819), Kansas (-1,600), Connecticut (-1,282), Virginia (-1,227), and Puerto Rico (-911).
