Aspire Misery Index for the Week Ended January 30, 2009 (updated Tuesday a.m. January 27)
Jan 27, 2009
Author: SCP Editor
Aspire Misery Index for the Week Ended, January 30, 2009
We are only one full day into this week’s session and already there has been enough downer news to last a quarter. That being said, from the performance of stocks lately, it looks like traders have priced much of the bad news in already:
Retail Industry – The National Retail Federation released a forecast for retailers in 2009 to record a 0.5% drop in revenue. Sales for the first half of 2009 are expected to decline by 2.5%, then a 1.1% decline in Q3 and a 3.6% increase in Q4.
Auto Industry – The National Association of Auto Dealers expects sales of at least 12.7 million vehicles in the U.S. this year.
Mobile Phone Industry - Global mobile phone market will shrink 9% in 2009, its first decline since 2001 and with the first half set to be especially grim, Strategy Analytics said.
Job Cuts – Caterpillar (20,000 jobs), Sprint Nextel (8,000 jobs), Deere (700 jobs), Home Depot (7,000 jobs), GM (2,000 jobs), Wyeth (8,000 jobs – on consolidation from Pfizer purchase), Brooks Automation (350 jobs, or 20% of workforce), Corning (3,500 jobs), Quiksilver (200 jobs), Weyerhauser (221 jobs)
Unemployment – The Conference Board said unemployment could rise to 9%. Nevada’s jobless rate reached 9.1% in December.
Profit Warnings – Caterpillar, Applied Industrial Tech, Eaton, Max Capital Group, Moog, McGraw Hill, Quanex, Lexmark, Jacobs Engineering,
Credit Ratings – Fitch lowered Johnson Control ratings, Moody’s downgraded Sealy, S&P cut Ryder System, S&P and Moody’s cut Blyth’s ratings,
Chapter 11 – Hartmarx (Obama’s suit maker), Smurfit-Stone,
Closing the Doors – Weyerhauser is closing two mills in southwestern Washington
Venture Capital – Investments in Q4 fell by 33% Y/Y to $5.4 billion. Investment into biotech and medical device companies fell 31% Y/Y to $1.6 billion. Investment into software companies fell by 28% Y/Y to $1 billion. The only sector bucking the trend was alternative energy and clean tech, which raised $908.2 million in the Q4, up 26% over the same period last year. For the full year, VC invested $28.3 billion, down 8% Y/Y.
State Budgets – Nevada’s unemployment rate rose to 9.1% in December;
Home Sales – Existing home sales rose 6.5% in December while the median home sales price fell 15.3% Y/Y to $175,400. For 2008, homes sales were down 13% TO 4.9 million homes, the lowest level since 1997. The National Association of Realtors said southern existing home sales fell almost 7% in December on a Y/Y basis, while the median sales price fell 8% to $158,600; existing home sales in the Midwest fell almost 5% in December on a Y/Y basis and the media sale price declined to $140,800.
Home Prices - S&P Case/Shiller index reported that home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined by 18.2% in November on a Y/Y basis.
Leading Indicators – The Conference Board’s monthly forecast of economic activity increased 0.3% in December.
Stock Dividends – the AP reported that dividends are being cut at the fastest pace in at least 50 years.
Colleges – universities are cutting budgets, and college endowments are down 3% in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2008, and in the first five months of FY2009, endowments are down 23% (source: TIAA-CREF and NACUBO).
